The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has challenged the presidential candidates of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Mr Peter Obi, to publicly defend their proposals for restoring fuel subsidies.
The policy group urged both opposition figures to present clear, evidence-based implementation plans explaining how their proposed subsidy frameworks would work without undermining government revenue, fiscal stability and the country's economic prospects.
The challenge was contained in a policy statement signed by IMPI Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, who accused the candidates of advancing populist arguments without providing transparent and financially sustainable explanations of how their proposals would be implemented.
Akinsiju maintained that political campaign promises must be supported by sound economic reasoning rather than what he described as economic illusions designed to secure temporary electoral support.
He called on Atiku and Obi to participate in a public debate on their respective proposals, including Atiku's proposed production subsidy model and Obi's alternative framework.
According to him, the candidates must explain how their plans would address critical concerns relating to ownership rights, government revenue losses, cross-border smuggling, legal compliance and budgetary transparency.
On crude oil ownership, the IMPI chairman asked how a government intending to restore subsidies through discounted domestic crude would compel international oil companies operating joint ventures and private crude producers to supply local refineries at government-mandated prices.
He warned that such a policy could trigger international arbitration, violate existing contractual agreements and discourage investment in Nigeria's oil industry.
The group also questioned how a subsidy restoration programme would compensate for potential revenue losses, given that crude oil sales remain a major source of foreign exchange and revenue for the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).
Akinsiju asked the candidates to explain how their administrations would prevent substantial revenue shortfalls from affecting allocations to state and local governments.
He further raised concerns about the possibility of subsidised crude oil and petroleum products being diverted across borders for profit under a deregulated regional market.
According to him, any proposed subsidy arrangement must include specific administrative and enforcement mechanisms to prevent a recurrence of the cross-border arbitrage associated with the previous fuel subsidy regime.
On the legal implications, Akinsiju questioned how the proposed policies would align with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which provides the statutory framework for market-driven pricing in Nigeria's downstream petroleum sector.
He also demanded clarification on whether the proposed subsidies would be transparently incorporated into the national budget approved by the National Assembly.
The IMPI chairman asked whether the candidates intended to introduce explicit budgetary provisions for the proposed support measures or return to off-budget under-recovery deductions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).
He argued that the latter approach had previously placed considerable pressure on public finances and contributed to the accumulation of government liabilities.
Akinsiju said Nigerians deserved detailed explanations of the economic implications of any proposal to restore fuel subsidies rather than generalised campaign promises.
He warned that reintroducing subsidies, whether described as a production subsidy or an interim welfare measure, could undermine fiscal stability, affect Nigeria's international credit standing and weaken efforts to achieve energy independence through domestic refining and local-currency crude transactions.
The IMPI chairman therefore urged Atiku and Obi to move beyond criticism of existing policies and provide Nigerians with detailed, empirically supported roadmaps explaining how their proposed alternatives would be financed, implemented and sustained.
He stressed that the candidates must publicly address the fundamental economic, legal and fiscal questions surrounding their proposals before seeking public support for the policies.