The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, raising the risk of major disruptions to global weather patterns, including floods, droughts and extreme heat, well into 2027.
In its latest El Niño/La Niña Update released on Thursday, September 3, 2026, the WMO said forecasts from its Global Producing Centres indicate an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent” that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027.
The UN weather agency said this was the first time in the history of its El Niño/La Niña Updates that the outlook had been so unequivocal, reflecting strong agreement among climate prediction models and meteorological experts worldwide.
According to the WMO, exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific are fuelling the event, which is expected to strengthen further in the coming months and reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.
The impacts of the event are expected to continue into 2027.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the intensifying El Niño, combined with rising global temperatures and warming oceans, poses increasing dangers to communities around the world.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Guterres said.
He warned that rising sea surface temperatures and increasing global temperatures were placing the world in a “danger zone of extreme weather.”
“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” he said.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the strengthening El Niño could deliver severe consequences for communities and economies across the globe.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
She said the anticipated event had prompted an unprecedented level of preparedness within the WMO system.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” Saulo said.
“Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”
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Saulo said WMO would continue working with United Nations agencies and humanitarian partners to provide climate intelligence needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy and water resources.
“We have no time to lose,” she added.
The WMO said sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific — the region at the heart of the El Niño phenomenon — were already significantly above normal and continued to rise.
The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, strengthened from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July 2026 to 2.0°C above normal in July.
Weekly measurements recorded between late July and mid-August showed further increases, ranging from approximately 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, indicating continued intensification.
The WMO said even more exceptional warming was occurring beneath the ocean surface.
In some parts of the tropical Pacific, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
According to the agency, the combination of unusually warm surface and subsurface ocean conditions strongly supports the continued development and strengthening of El Niño.
“Confidence in the outlook is high,” the WMO said, citing strong and mutually reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals, as well as close agreement among seasonal prediction systems.
Global Weather Patterns Could Shift
The WMO explained that El Niño and La Niña are among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system.
A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across different parts of the world.
However, the organisation stressed that the intensity of an El Niño event does not automatically determine the severity of its impact in every country.
The effects of El Niño vary according to location and season and may also be influenced by other climate systems, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
To provide a broader picture of expected climate conditions, the WMO has issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update incorporating El Niño and other major climate drivers.
For the September-November 2026 period, WMO multi-model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas worldwide.
Rainfall forecasts also show what the organisation described as a pronounced and classic atmospheric response associated with a strong Pacific El Niño.
The WMO further said a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was expected to develop, with a projected September-October-November seasonal mean value of 0.9°C.
Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is forecast to remain generally warm, with sea surface temperatures in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic expected to remain above normal.
The agency said these conditions could reinforce, weaken or modify typical El Niño impacts in different parts of the world.
WMO Steps Up Preparedness and Early Warning
With forecasts pointing to a potentially exceptional event, the WMO said it and its partners were stepping up preparedness, early-warning and climate monitoring efforts.
The organisation said reliable seasonal forecasts provide governments, humanitarian agencies, businesses and communities with valuable time to prepare for potential climate-related disasters.
WMO Members and partners will continue to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño and regularly update forecasts on its likely regional impacts.
The organisation emphasised that National Meteorological and Hydrological Services remain the authoritative sources of official weather warnings and locally relevant climate information.
More detailed regional forecasts are also available through WMO Regional Climate Centres and Regional Climate Outlook Forums.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and 12 months.
El Niño usually begins developing between March and June and reaches peak intensity between November and February.
However, its influence on global temperatures can extend beyond the period of peak ocean warming and may become most pronounced in the year following its development.
The WMO stressed that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.
However, scientists increasingly use additional measurement tools to distinguish between warming caused by ENSO and broader increases in global ocean temperatures.
Since the 1980s, one of the dominant methods used to identify El Niño has been the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific over a three-month period.
In recent years, a newer metric known as the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has also gained prominence.
Unlike traditional measurements, RONI focuses on relative warming and helps scientists determine whether ocean warming is primarily driven by ENSO or by wider global ocean warming.
The WMO said its El Niño/La Niña Update was developed through collaboration with the Center for Climate Systems Research and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia Climate School in the United States, alongside contributions from meteorological and climate institutions across the world.
These include the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the China Meteorological Administration, Météo-France, the India Meteorological Department and other global climate prediction centres.
The WMO said the strong consensus among global forecasting systems underscores the need for governments and communities to intensify preparedness efforts as the potentially very strong El Niño develops.
With the event expected to persist into early 2027, the UN weather agency said continued monitoring, early warning systems and timely action would be critical to reducing the potential impact of floods, droughts, extreme heat and other climate-related hazards on vulnerable populations around the world.