The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a strong El Niño event is expected to intensify between August and October 2026, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and triggering major shifts in rainfall patterns that could heighten the risks of droughts, floods and wildfires.
The UN weather agency said the developing climate phenomenon, combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is likely to dominate global weather patterns in the coming months, prompting governments and humanitarian agencies to strengthen preparedness efforts.
According to WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update on Friday, multi-model forecasts from leading global climate centres indicate that seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius during the August–October period, signalling a strong El Niño.
The agency said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—characterised by warmer-than-normal waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler-than-normal waters in the east—is also forecast to develop. Together, these climate drivers are expected to amplify regional weather extremes, including prolonged droughts, flooding and increased wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin. Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are also projected to remain above average.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation as an escalating climate emergency.
"El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat," Guterres said, warning that the phenomenon is intensifying against a backdrop of record ocean temperatures, devastating wildfires and extreme heat. He urged countries to halt the expansion of fossil fuels, saying continued dependence on coal, oil and gas would worsen the climate crisis."
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed that while accurate forecasts cannot prevent disasters on their own, they provide governments with a crucial opportunity to prepare before impacts unfold.
She said the strengthening El Niño, combined with unprecedented ocean warmth, makes it more important than ever for climate information to reach decision-makers, farmers, health authorities and vulnerable communities in time to reduce risks.
The WMO noted that its Global Seasonal Climate Update complements its regular El Niño/La Niña Update by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, to provide a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions.
Hotter Conditions Expected Across Most Regions
The seasonal outlook projects above-average temperatures across nearly all land areas worldwide.
The strongest warming signals are forecast over Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand. Ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are also expected to continue reflecting the strengthening El Niño.
Rainfall Patterns to Shift Dramatically
The WMO said rainfall forecasts display the classic signature of a strong El Niño event.
Above-normal rainfall is expected across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45 degrees north latitude and southeastern South America.
Conversely, below-normal rainfall is forecast for the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe, increasing the risk of drought in many of these regions.
The agency cautioned that while seasonal outlook maps indicate the most likely outcomes, they represent probabilities rather than certainties.
WMO Mobilises Early Warning Support
To reduce the impacts of the developing El Niño, the WMO said it has intensified coordination with United Nations agencies, humanitarian organisations and national meteorological services.
The organisation has been providing regular climate briefings to humanitarian partners and recently presented regional forecasts, including the 2026 West African and Sahel rainy season outlook from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre.
It also plans to hold a series of webinars and technical exchanges aimed at strengthening regional preparedness, communication and coordinated response as the El Niño event continues to intensify.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years, lasts between nine and twelve months, and often reaches peak intensity between November and February.The WMO noted that while El Niño is closely monitored because of its global influence on weather patterns, every event differs depending on its strength, duration and interaction with other climate systems. The agency also reiterated that the term "super El Niño" is not part of its official operational classification.